Scenario Analysis
Probabilistic scenario framework · Q3 2026 outlook
Updated Jun 8, 2026
Probability Distribution
AI scenario weighting
Base Case
55%BTC$85,000 – $95,000
ETH$4,800 – $5,500
SOL$240 – $320
Expansion Case
20%BTC$120,000 – $150,000
ETH$7,500 – $10,000
SOL$500 – $650
Risk Case
25%BTC$42,000 – $55,000
ETH$1,800 – $2,800
SOL$80 – $130
Base Case
Continued Bull Cycle Expansion
55%
probability
ETF demand continues absorbing supply. Macro environment stabilizes with Fed cut in July providing risk-on tailwind. Bitcoin halving supply shock amplifies price appreciation. Institutional allocations accelerate.
Key Conditions
- Fed delivers 25bp rate cut at July FOMC
- Bitcoin ETF daily flows remain >$500M
- No major regulatory shocks in US/EU
- Stablecoin supply continues expanding
- S&P 500 holds above 5,200 support
Risk Factors
- Miner capitulation selling pressure spike
- Mt. Gox / FTX distribution market impact
Expansion Case
Supercycle Acceleration
20%
probability
Sovereign wealth fund adoption triggers second wave of institutional demand. ETF flows accelerate 5x baseline. Bitcoin supply shock reaches critical mass. Altcoin season rotations amplify returns.
Key Conditions
- Sovereign fund BTC allocation announcement
- US spot Ethereum ETF approval + strong inflows
- Global M2 expansion accelerates
- Corporate treasury BTC adoption wave (>10 companies)
- Bitcoin dominance breaks above 60%
Risk Factors
- Rapid leverage buildup creates fragile conditions
- Macro reversal could trigger sharp correction from peak
Risk Case
Cycle Top & Deep Correction
25%
probability
Macro deterioration combines with overextended crypto leverage to trigger cascading liquidations. Regulatory shock or macro recession forces risk-off across all crypto assets. ETF inflows reverse.
Key Conditions
- US enters technical recession (2 quarters GDP negative)
- Fed pauses/hikes — macro risk-off environment
- Major exchange or protocol hack/exploit >$1B
- US crypto regulation dramatically tightens
- China intensifies crypto mining crackdowns
Risk Factors
- Systematic leverage unwind similar to May 2021
- ETF outflows accelerating from new entrants capitulating
Trigger Events
Click any row to see impact analysis · Catalysts ranked by market impact
Federal Reserve July FOMC Decision
Rate cut expected — historically positive for risk assets. A pause or hike would trigger scenario shift toward risk case.
Date
Jul 30, 2026
Impact
HIGHBias
bullishOccurrence Prob.
72%
Mt. Gox Creditor BTC Distribution
142,000 BTC ($9.6B) being distributed to creditors. Key question: how much hits market vs held by long-term believers.
Date
Ongoing
Impact
HIGHBias
bearishOccurrence Prob.
85%
BlackRock Ethereum ETF Launch
Spot ETH ETF approval would unlock institutional demand similar to BTC ETF launch. Potential $3-5B first month inflows.
Date
Q3 2026
Impact
MEDIUMBias
bullishOccurrence Prob.
58%
Bitcoin $75K Psychological Level
Breaking ATH decisively above $75K would trigger media cycle, FOMO, and next wave of retail entry.
Date
Price trigger
Impact
MEDIUMBias
bullishOccurrence Prob.
65%
Binance DOJ Settlement Final Terms
Potential operational restrictions or new revelations could cause exchange-specific panic and broader market contagion.
Date
Q3 2026
Impact
MEDIUMBias
bearishOccurrence Prob.
40%